Course Information
- Course Price $5950
- Location Dubai Courses
- Course Code FPCNRD
- Course Date 18 Aug - 22 Aug 2025
Course Objectives
Due to the strategic nature of Crude oil in the global economy, governments, businesses, investors, financial institutions, regulators, and the public spend a lot of time to find out the direction of the Oil prices. Forecasting the exact direction of Oil prices has become a herculean task and hence, the lack of a widely accepted consensus on the best way to forecast Oil prices. This course will highlight most of the commonly used techniques in forecasting the prices of Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Refined Products. It is also expected that, aside from the standard techniques such as linear regression and econometrics, alternative methods such as structural models and computer-drive analytics will be explored.
The movement in global Oil price is influenced by so many variables and therefore the course will also explore the use of Technical Analysis (TA) as a technique that measures sentiment to predict the direction of Oil prices. Technical Analysis also known as charting is widely used by the financial market traders and is gradually gaining acceptability of the academicians due to its relationship with behavioural finance.
Who Should Attend?
Financial analysts, Government and regulatory officials with responsibility to energy sector,
Risk Managers, Energy traders, Consultants in the commodity sector, etc.
Course Overview
Measuring Anxiety/Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
The Crude-Oil Markets: Level and Slope of Crude-Oil Futures Markets; Impact of Economic, Financial and Geopolitical Events on Implied Instability in the Crude-Oil Market
Effect of Seasonality on Global Petroleum and Gas Markets
The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
The Domestic Petroleum and Gas Market: The effect of seasonality
The Futures Contract
Financial Markets� �Message from Markets�; Interpret bond-market moves in concurrence with those in equity markets.
Empirical Regularities of Global Fixed Income Markets
Understanding the fundamentals of bond valuation
Eurodollar Futures and Interest Rate Swaps
Duration and Convexity; Hedging interest rate exposure
Interest-Rate Volatility
Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility; Stationarity of time variables
Regression Analysis
Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems
Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
Forward/Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
Commodity Swaps
The Key Difference between Real-Asset Valuation and Expected Value
Black-Scholes Formula
Option �Sensitivities� (the �Greeks�); Delta and Gamma
Real Options in Energy Markets: Power Plants as a Strip of Spark Spread Options; Oil Fields as the Valuation of an Extraction Option
Historical Volatility; The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
Characterizing the Volatility �Surface� Across Time and Strike
The �Market Price of Risk�: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance and Applying it to Energy Prices.
How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets� Perspective on Forecast Prices?
Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective
Categorizing derivative products: option collars, average options, spread options, swing options, weather derivatives, commodity-linked bonds; �Swing� Options; Weather Derivatives.
Structuring and valuing option collars
Technical Vs Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis Vs Random Walk Theory
Brief on Dow Theory
Trend and Trendlines, Volumes, Supports and Resistance Levels
Chart Patterns
Technical Indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, Stochastics,
Fibonacci Retracement
Learning Goals:
Upon completion of this course, the participants will to:
Use financial models to analyse and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor.
Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities.
Manage and optimise their organisations� energy risk exposure.
Estimate expected returns and calculate volatility in energy prices.
Obtain a comprehensive knowledge of the financial-economics techniques used to forecast prices.
Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets.
Utilise real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures/option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants.
Training Methodology:
This course will be presented through a combination of following methods:
Clear presentation of notes with the requisite supportive analytics
Detailed presentation of the relevant empirical regularities/stylized facts of the energy markets
Presentation of several case studies designed to exemplify the application of risk-management and valuation principles.
Interspersed in the lectures are relevant problem-sets, designed to afford participants with the opportunity to apply the principles conveyed and see their implementation.
Dissemination to and sharing with participants critical spreadsheets that will permit them to address issues within the course, as well as utilise these concepts once they have completed the course.
Valuation and role of futures contracts and swap agreements
Mean forecasts to make better business decisions.